FC St. Pauli vs VfB Stuttgart

VfB Stuttgart lost 1-0 against FC St. Pauli in the first half of the season, bringing an end to their 10-game unbeaten run against the Kiezkicker in all competitions (W9, D1). St. Pauli could now go unbeaten against the Swabians across an entire Bundesliga season and record back-to-back top-flight wins against them for the first time.

VfB Stuttgart have only won one of their last 10 Bundesliga games (4-0 in Bochum, otherwise D3, L6). The Swabians have 41 points from 31 games, meaning they are 23 points worse off compared to this stage last season (64) – no other club has suffered such a big drop-off compared to 2023/24.

VfB Stuttgart have lost eight of their 14 games in the second half of the season – twice as many defeats as they suffered in the first half of the campaign (4), while only 1. FC Heidenheim have been beaten more often during this period (9). VfB have only ever lost more of their first 14 games in the second half of a top-flight season back in 1965/66 (9).

FC St. Pauli are unbeaten in their last four Bundesliga games (W1, D3), their longest undefeated streak this season. The Kiezkicker are enjoying a three-game unbeaten run at home for the first time this season (W1, D2). They have scored in each of their last three home games, finding the net in as many fixtures as across their opening 12 home matches of 2024/25 (drew a blank 9 times).

FC St. Pauli are six points clear of 16th with three games to go. Since three points for a win was introduced, no side has ever blown such a big advantage with three matchdays left to play. If the Kiezkicker claim more points than 1. FC Heidenheim this weekend, they will officially be safe from relegation.